AgriAuditor risk planning tool
Crop weather risk simulator
An average yield hides the years that break a farm. This replays the recorded weather at your coordinates to show what the crop did in its worst year, its typical year and its best one — then simulates ten years of cash flow so you can see how often the plan loses money.
How to read the result
Worst, typical, best year
One modelled yield per recorded weather year, so the worst case is a year that actually happened — with the driver that caused it named.
The 10–90% band
The middle 80% of simulated decades. One in ten paths finished below the lower line. It is a range of outcomes, not a floor.
Loss years
How many years in the run lost money, and the probability the whole decade ends negative — the number an average margin conceals.
Best, worst & typical year for your field
Replays 30 years of real recorded weather at your coordinates to show how this crop might have performed in those seasons, and what a decade could look like.
Method and limitations
Each recorded weather year at the selected coordinates is scored against the crop model to give that year's yield. Those years are then resampled to build many ten-year paths, which is where the percentile band and the loss-year count come from. The number of years replayed and the number of simulated decades are both shown with the result.
This is a replay, not a forecast. It describes the range a location has historically produced. It says nothing about next season.
Weather is one source of variability among many. The simulation ignores pests, disease, hail, machinery and labour failure, price shocks and management quality, and holds one cost and price assumption across every simulated year. Treat the spread as optimistic rather than conservative.
Use it alongside the other checks
Confirm the season is long enough with the GDD and frost window calculator, size the water with the irrigation water calculator, and price the capital with the farm conversion cost calculator.
Then run a coordinate-level land audit for mapped soil and climate context behind the crop choice itself.
Read the AgriAuditor methodology →Questions about the weather risk simulator
What does the weather risk simulator actually do?
It replays the recorded weather years at your coordinates against a crop model to produce a yield for each historical year, giving a worst, typical and best year with the driver behind the worst one. It then resamples those years to simulate many ten-year cash-flow paths.
Is this a forecast?
No. It is a replay of weather that already happened, not a prediction of weather to come. It describes the range a location has historically produced, which is a different question from what next season will do.
What does the 10th to 90th percentile band mean?
Across the simulated decades, 10% of paths finished below the lower line and 10% finished above the upper one. The band is the middle 80% of outcomes, not a guaranteed floor or ceiling — the worst historical year is still in the sample.
Why does it report the number of loss-making years?
A crop can have an attractive average and still be unfinanceable if it loses money in three years out of ten. Counting loss years and the probability of a negative ten-year result exposes the risk that an average margin hides.
What are the biggest limitations?
Weather is only one source of yield variability. The simulation ignores pests, disease, hail, labour and machinery failure, price shocks and management quality, and it applies one price and cost assumption across every simulated year. Real cash flow is more volatile than this.
Can I use it to support a loan application?
Only as one screening input. It is decision support, not a financial projection, and it does not account for your actual balance sheet, contracts or working capital. Replace the benchmark cost and price assumptions with your own records before showing it to anyone.